The crash is coming, the crash is coming! As a 1943 model Baby Boomer I have relived all of the previous Turnings and bought into Neil Howe's 'the end is near' theory no later than 2026. All the sages have been advising buy-don't buy gold, get out of the market, get out of the country, the global melt-down happens for sure in 2015, 2016, 2017, and absolutely 2018.
I watched a recent Neil Howe YouTube video where he set 2008 as the start date for the Fourth Turning instead of 2004. A historical fact adjustment to his theory that a Turning takes a Generation of 20 years. For example the 1st Turning went from 1946-1966. Howe re-adjusted the timeline from '43-'66 to allow for JFK's assassination in 1963 and my birthday or at least the JFK part is true.
Now, I come to find out, we are still in the Catalyst phase, the first of the four stages of morphology, which leaves Regeneracy, Crisis, and Resolution yet to come.
1943 First Turning is a High.
1963 Second Turning is an Awakening
1984 Third Turning is an Unraveling.
2004 Fourth Turning is a Crisis.
First we have to understand how the Crisis is broken down into sections. The Crisis starts with a Catalyst, which Strauss and Howe describe as “a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood”. Following the Catalyst, society should move quickly, typically from 1-5 years after the catalyst, into the regeneracy, which is “a new counter entropy that re-unifies and re-energizes civic life”. The Regeneracy should last from 10-15 years. And then finally we have the Climax which is a relatively short period of extreme conflict that leads to a Resolution.
Neil Howe originally considered 9/11 as the Catalyst, it was a startling event that produced a sudden shift in mood. But when 1-5 years later expected 'country really started to pull together' didn't happen, Howe re-calibrated the 4th Turning start-finish dates from the 2008 Financial Crisis to 2026.
Making ends meet by selling Viagra in the Chinese countryside
September 2008 works for me, because by committing financial suicide with a stated income 'liar loan' mortgage, I became an economic refugee to Mainland China. I met my partner, a frugal - no fault of her own - over fifty unemployable doctorate level refugee in September 2011. Together, having recovered my SSA through a Short-Sale of 867 Tyler, we decided to retire on the affordable Turkish Riviera in 2014.
I was bragging to my Irishman, next door neighbor, that it had been almost six years since the 4th Turning Catalyst 2008 Lehman Brothers event, when the trouble started. We were comparing Antalya,Turkey with the entire universe of expat retirement options, when Alan said,
"we need a bomb to go off, to lower the price of real estate."
We didn't have to wait long because the June 2015 elections in Turkey were inconclusive and weren't finalized until June 2018. Something similar took place in the US where the Trump bomb went off on November 8, 2017 and Mueller's investigation has not yet concluded.
Professor Howe says it's gotta-be Lehman Brothers 9/15 2008 as the beginning of the Catalyst first phase, to be followed 1 - 5 years later by Regeneracy.
The sad news, according to Howe, even after revisions we are still in the first phase, the Catalyst. Alan and I beg to differ, we think that 4th Turnings are always about the money. Howe in his book describes the previous 4th Turnings in the US, as the "American Revolution," the "Civil War," and the "Great Wars." George Washington went to war in 1775 under the banner "Taxation without representation."
In the "Civil War," Abe Lincoln, had to end slavery to free the North from "unfair competitive practices." Today, 20 million illegal immigrants live in "Uncle Tom's Cabins," in all 50 states (maybe not Alaska & Hawaii) working for slave wages and the unintended consequence of abolition of a real wage increase for the general population
The "Great Wars." WWI & WWII, were financed on both sides by the Rothschild's (Central Bankers) to further their Illuminati empire.
1963 - 1983 Second Turning is an Awakening, on August 15, 1971 Nixon made it a Rude Awakening.
The current 4th Turning is all about Money, not Race, Religion, Sex or Politics. Lehman Brothers was the Catalyst in 2008 but as Alan and I argue, in our forth-coming book, "Be Your Own Central Bank," the Fed kicked off Step 2: Regeneracy with their May 22, 2013 Taper Tantrum. Almost five years after the crash, 12 trillion of funny money issued and 95% of the world's peeps not a cent richer - worse their 2008 dollar is only worth 87 centavos. You can fool some of the people, since 1971. When they didn't receive a nickel from that bogus 12 trillion, they start to get that we've been screwed feeling.
Step 2 is Regeneracy “a new counter entropy that re-unifies and re-energizes civic life.” The Regeneracy should last from 10-15 years. September 15, 2018 will be the tenth anniversary of the "Big Short." Responding to a question on the next U.S. recession, the median answer was the first half of 2019." The candidates for the triggering Step 3: the Climax are not Race (Immigration), not Religion (Radical Islam), not Sex (Stormy Daniels) and not Politics (Trump). it's the Money (Honey).
Thanks to 'Tricky Dick' every nation on earth is kiting checks out of the same USD reserve currency checkbook but only the US has overdraft privileges. As Trump likes to boast, "America holds all the cards." The Emerging Market countries are contemplating tossing in their cards. Venezuela has folded, and Argentina has borrowed 50 billion from the IMF house. China is the Big Dawg at the table, who is using blocked currency chips called Yuan or Renminbi.
US trade deficits arrived after Nixon closed the Gold window.
China accuses the US of writing them a bum check, which they cashed into Yuan that even the Chinese people don't want. It's karma, China has been playing poker with the US using fake money, at least it is more fake than the US dollar because the Yuan is not freely traded.
"And then finally we have the Climax which is a relatively short period of extreme conflict that leads to a Resolution." Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny,
In Chapter 9 of “The Fourth Turning” Strauss and Howe outline how the prior Climax have occurred. In their analysis there is one striking similarity to each Crisis cycle: practically no one sees the climax coming, even less than a year in advance.
Although Alan has been in 72 countries, China has not merited more than a cursory two week visit, so this is my out-on-an-limb forecast: Trump calls Xi Jinping's bluff by the 2019 Chinese New Year.
Their 2019 New Year's Resolution: Reset the world's reserve currency to Gold at $10,000/oz.
Happy New Year